A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
