Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.